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Capital Strategy Lab

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DAILY MONEY FLOW · STRATEGY LAB

Capital Strategy Lab External Preview Edition

Experimental strategy edition, separate from the standard daily report. It reorganizes flow, open interest, price action, persistence, crowding, and data quality into scenarios, lifecycle stages, portfolio candidates, and risk filters. Coverage is limited to contracts with single-side settled capital above RMB 1bn.

2026-06-29External Preview EditionGenerated 2026-06-30 09:44

External Preview SampleThis report is an external preview, showing only selected research framework, sample signals, and redacted charts; the internal subscription edition provides full content, multi-dimensional matrix analysis, and high-resolution charts. To access the internal edition, please contact BW Research for authorized subscription.

Research ReferenceThis report is for commodity-market research and data organization only; it does not constitute investment advice, trading instructions, or any return commitment.

Copyright NoticeNo commercial use, republication, screenshot sharing, or redistribution without permission.

External Preview EditionExternal preview edition: shows a condensed strategy map, lifecycle view, representative candidates, and core risk filters. Full rankings, exact scores, source fields, and data-quality audit are reserved for the internal subscription edition.
EXTERNAL PDF RESEARCH EDITIONExternal PDF Research Edition | preview sample, not a complete trading list

展示策略框架、Sector方向、代表候选和核心风险；隐藏完整排序、精确评分、Source字段、数据质量审计和历史连续性。

  • VisibleStrategy map / sector exposure / representative candidates
  • ReducedCandidate scores / risk scores / ranking depth
  • InternalFull execution research chain
PUBLIC 01-02Fully Public

The strategy map and lifecycle framework are visible for understanding the day's capital structure.

PREVIEW 03-05Sanitized Preview

Only representative candidates and core risk tags are shown. Full rankings, exact scores, risk scores, source fields, and data-quality audit are hidden.

UNLOCK FULL解锁完整Internal Research Edition

View the full candidate pool, all-instrument ranking, source fields, historical persistence, exclusion reasons, and execution research chain.

Net Flow-20.3bn

57 valid instruments

Directional Breadth19 / 21

inflow / outflow

Highest ConvictionCJ

红枣(CJ) · 83

Highest CrowdingFU

燃油(FU) · 71

01

Strategy Scenario Control Deck

X-axis is strategy conviction; Y-axis is crowding and reversal risk. Lower-right is the preferred candidate zone; upper-right requires pullback or secondary confirmation.

Low conviction / high crowding High conviction / high crowding Low conviction / low crowding High conviction / low crowding Strategy conviction -> Crowding and reversal risk -> CJ红枣(CJ) · Trend Long · 强度 83.4 / 拥挤 67.1SI工业硅(SI) · Trend Long · 强度 75.9 / 拥挤 43.2FU燃油(FU) · Trend Long · 强度 66.5 / 拥挤 71.2SP纸浆(SP) · Trend Long · 强度 73.3 / 拥挤 40.9PK花生(PK) · Trend Long · 强度 72.2 / 拥挤 42.9RU天然橡胶(RU) · Trend Long · 强度 67.2 / 拥挤 58.7RM菜粕(RM) · Long Liquidation · 强度 72.4 / 拥挤 37.3AP苹果(AP) · Short Covering · 强度 67 / 拥挤 58.2EC集运欧线(EC) · Long Liquidation · 强度 71.7 / 拥挤 35.5RB螺纹钢(RB) · Trend Long · 强度 72.2 / 拥挤 30.9BU沥青(BU) · Short Covering · 强度 61.3 / 拥挤 61.5HC热卷板(HC) · Trend Long · 强度 70.3 / 拥挤 25.2OI菜籽油(OI) · Trend Long · 强度 66.1 / 拥挤 39.7BR丁二烯橡胶(BR) · Trend Long · 强度 59.6 / 拥挤 54.3SC原油(SC) · 承接Divergence · 强度 58.9 / 拥挤 55.1MA甲醇(MA) · Trend Long · 强度 58.7 / 拥挤 48.5PB沪铅(PB) · 承接Divergence · 强度 57.0 / 拥挤 48.6SH烧碱(SH) · Short Covering · 强度 50.8 / 拥挤 61.0AG沪银(AG) · Trend Long · 强度 57.1 / 拥挤 35.3AO氧化铝(AO) · Trend Long · 强度 57.9 / 拥挤 27.2NRBR橡胶(NR) · Short Covering · 强度 50.9 / 拥挤 53.9AL沪铝(AL) · Short Covering · 强度 52.3 / 拥挤 39.6TAPTA(TA) · Trend Long · 强度 52.7 / 拥挤 21.1ZN沪锌(ZN) · Short Covering · 强度 44.7 / 拥挤 52.8
02

Signal Lifecycle

Single-day moves are split into launch, confirmation, overheated, divergence, watch, and downgraded stages so early signals are not mixed with crowded ones.

Launch

AP苹果(AP) | Short Covering

Confirm

SI工业硅(SI) | Trend Long
SP纸浆(SP) | Trend Long
RM菜粕(RM) | Long Liquidation

Overheated

CJ红枣(CJ) | Trend Long

Divergence

BU沥青(BU) | Short Covering
AL沪铝(AL) | Short Covering
NRBR橡胶(NR) | Short Covering

Watch

PK花生(PK) | Trend Long
RU天然橡胶(RU) | Trend Long
OI菜籽油(OI) | Trend Long

Downgraded

FU燃油(FU) | Trend Long
Y豆油(Y) | Watch
LH生猪(LH) | Watch
03

Long/Short Candidate Pool

Only reliable and not-yet-overcrowded instruments are included for further manual screening. This is not trading advice.

Long Candidates

01红枣(CJ)Agri Products高ConfirmTrend Long | full score in internal edition
02工业硅(SI)New Energy中高ConfirmTrend Long | full score in internal edition
03螺纹钢(RB)Ferrous中高ConfirmTrend Long | full score in internal edition

Short Candidates

01菜粕(RM)Oils/Oilseeds中高ConfirmLong Liquidation | full score in internal edition
02集运欧线(EC)Other中高ConfirmLong Liquidation | full score in internal edition
03苹果(AP)Agri ProductsWatchConfirmShort Covering | full score in internal edition

External Preview Edition只展示候选样本和方向，不提供完整排序、精确评分、Source字段和数据质量审计。

04

Sector Net Exposure And Rotation Pressure

Use sector net flow and breadth to monitor portfolio exposure and avoid overconcentration in one chain.

Financials-11.0bn

Breadth +0 · Leader 沪深300(IF)

Precious Metals+0.4bn

Breadth +2 · Leader 沪金(AU)

Base Metals-15.3bn

Breadth -4 · Leader 沪铝(AL)

Ferrous+3.6bn

Breadth +1 · Leader 螺纹钢(RB)

New Energy-4.5bn

Breadth -1 · Leader 碳酸锂(LC)

Energy/Chemicals+14.3bn

Breadth +5 · Leader 原油(SC)

Oils/Oilseeds+1.5bn

Breadth +0 · Leader 菜籽油(OI)

Agri Products-0.6bn

Breadth +0 · Leader 苹果(AP)

Softs-4.9bn

Breadth -2 · Leader 棉花(CF)

Other-3.7bn

Breadth -3 · Leader 沥青(BU)

05

Crowding And No-Trade Filter

High crowding, price-flow divergence, and downgraded data enter the watch or exclusion list to protect signal quality.

InstrumentSectorRisk TagsExternal Handling
燃油(FU)Energy/Chemicals数据Downgraded / Crowding elevatedAvoid chasing
鸡蛋(JD)Agri Products数据Downgraded等待Confirm
液化气(PG)Other数据Downgraded等待Confirm
聚丙烯(PP)Other数据Downgraded等待Confirm
焦煤(JM)Ferrous数据Downgraded等待Confirm
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